Wheat Bouncing on Monday Morning

Austin Schroeder Barchart Mon Jul 14, 7:38AM CDT
Field of wheat under a blue cloudy sky by Robin Via Pixabay

Wheat is showing positive trade early on Monday, with a rebound from Friday’s losses. The wheat complex posted losses across the three markets on Friday, following a larger than expected production total. Chicago SRW wheat was down 9 to 10 cents, with September down 11 ¾ cents this week. There were another 34 delivery notices against July on Friday. July futures expire today. KC HRW contracts were down 10 to 11 cents on the day, taking the week pullback to 11 ¾ cents. There were 5 deliveries against July on Friday evening.  MPLS spring wheat was down the hardest, 18 to 25 cents lower on Friday, with a weekly decline of 33 ½ cents.

Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds continuing to trim their large net short position in Chicago wheat futures and options, this week by 7,477 contracts to 55,594 contracts as of July 8th. In Kansas City wheat, managed money added 971 contracts to their net short position to 43,319 contracts.

Crop Production data showed all wheat production hiked by 8 mbu to 1.929 bbu, as yield was raised by 1 bpa from last month to 52.6. Winter wheat production was trimmed by 37 mbu to 1.345 bbu on a drop to acreage. Spring wheat came in above estimates at 503.6 mbu, with durum at 79.7 mbu.   

The larger US production and increased carryover (851 mbu +10) was offset by an increase to exports by 25 mbu to 850 mbu. That cut the stocks estimate for new crop by 8 mbu to 890. World wheat stock for the end of 2025/26 were down 1.24 MMT from last month at 261.52 MMT. That came as Canadian stocks were cut on a 1 MMT reduction to production. 

A Taiwan flour mill has issued a tender to buy 89,650 MT of US wheat

Jul 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.40 3/4, down 9 1/2 cents, currently unch

Sep 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.45, down 9 1/2 cents, currently up 5 1/4 cents

Jul 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.04 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents, currently unch

Sep 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.24 1/4, down 10 1/2 cents, currently up 7 cents

Jul 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $5.98 1/4, down 24 ¾ cents, currently unch

Sep 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.13 3/4, down 18 cents, currently up 3 cents


On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.