“Shootin’ The Bull”

End of Day Market Recap

by Christopher B. Swift

​4/17/2025

​

Cattle on Feed: 98%, Placed 105%, Marketed 101%​​

                              11.63 million head on feed

​

​

Live Cattle:

Most fat contract months have filled their respective gap or come very close to.  The close proximity to the known high leaves producers to consider whether this is a second chance at marketing at these levels, or embrace a new romance of higher prices.  Through the grapevine talk has been producers holding on to current inventory for as long as possible in an attempt to not have to pay current price for newly acquired inventory.  The agenda for sectors of cattle feeders and down appears to grow them as big as possible.  

Feeder Cattle:  

With too much production capacity, zero aspects of an increase for 12 to 18 months, and the dairy/beef cross humming efficiently in the background, I am coming to believe what cattlemen tell me, there are no more cattle.  So, how do cattle feeders continue to maintain a very steady on feed number for 32 months now?  I think it is as simple as, it is not there are that fewer cattle, there are just more producers that have expanded to work more cattle and they are not there.  So, with some continuing to pay whatever price it takes to own them, it appears this is a drive someone out of business environment.  I don't know of much other way to view it and am open for any insight as to, if there are no more cattle, how are you going to be in business?  I think what it all boils down to is that vertical integration is keeping a larger portion off the open market that at one time, you may have been privy to.  Volume of inventory has been phenomenal for years.  Production facilities have increased greatly with a large increase in just the past 4 years due to the excessive government spending. So, there is no answer as to what someone will do, or pay, in order to stay in the cattle business, other than what we currently can see as the assumption of risk greater than ever before.   

Corn:

Corn softened on the close and has worked into a small triangle.  I anticipate corn to continue higher.  ​​

​

Energy/Bonds:

Energy was higher.  Energy is expected to return to levels prior to the disruptions caused by the tariff issues.  Bonds are soft with spite selling of US debt still apparent.  The President is calling for lower rates and with retail rates at the current levels, it would make a very profitable spread towards banks.  As commodity inflation was a minor factor and now having subsided greatly, it is all other economic aspects of retail that remains elevated when shopping.  Fast food establishments are continually fighting for declining market share.  Insurance on everything and especially healthcare is higher and no doubt, taxes on everything you buy continues to rob consumers of discretionary funds. 

​​​​​

 “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

​​

​