The June WTI (CLM25) contract settled at 61.83 (+1.08) [+1.78%], high of 62.31, low of 59.87. Spot price is 61.34 (-0.24). Open interest for CLM25 is 306,044. CLM25 settled above its 5 day (60.87), below its 20 day (65.36), below its 50 day (67.29), below its 100 day (68.73), below its 200 day (69.43) and below its year-to date (68.88) moving averages. 

The June Brent Crude (QAM25) contract settled at 65.85 (+1.18) [+1.82%], high of 66.31, low of 63.80. Spot Brent price is 64.67 (-0.26). QAM25 settled above its 5 day (64.73), below its 20 day (69.16), below its 50 day (70.97), below its 100 day (72.35), below its 200 day (73.43) and below its year-to-date (72.49) moving averages.

Last Friday’s COT report (Net Futures and Options Summary) as of 4/11/25 showed commercials with a net short position of -184,638 (a decrease in short positions by 10,964 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +169,107 (a decrease in long positions by 16,415 from the previous week)

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Today’s U.S. Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 11, 2025 showed U.S. commercial crude oil inventories had a build of +515,000 barrels, bringing inventories to a total of 442.9 million barrels, seasonally inventories are about 6% lower than the 5-year average. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6 million barrels per day, imports fell by -189,000 bpd compared to the week prior. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.6 million bdp, a -64,000 bdp decrease from the previous week. Crude refineries operated at 86.3% capacity. Domestic oil production increased from 13.458 million bdp to 13.462 million bdp. Total commercial petroleum inventories fell by -2.1 million barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased by +300,000 barrels. This marks the third consecutive week of U.S. inventory builds.

Eight members of OPEC+ who have exceeded voluntary production quotas, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq and the UAE will have to compensate for 4.57 million bpd in overproduction, the compensation plans stipulate that the eight members must offset all above-quota output by June of next year. Last month the eight OPEC+ countries jointly agreed to raise production starting in May by 411,000 bpd. OPEC data published today showed that the total backlog of overdue compensation cuts has increased by about 139 million barrels (9%). Iraq said they plan on cutting their April production by 70,000 bdp to comply with quotas.  

This week OPEC reduced its forecast for oil demand growth for the first time since December in their monthly outlook report, OPEC now expects demand to rise by 1.3 million barrels a day for 2025 and 1.28 million bpd for 2026. This is down from 1.45 million bpd for 2025 and 1.43 million bpd for 2026. OPEC's report also showed that crude production by the wider OPEC+ fell in March by 37,000 bpd to a total of 41.02 million barrels.

China's crude oil imports rose in March, up nearly 5% year-over-year, driven by a surge in Iranian oil and Russian shipments, according to data released Monday. Imports hit 12.1 million barrels per day, marking the highest level since August 2023, based on Reuters' analysis of customs data. This was up from 11.55 million bpd in March 2024 and 10.38 million bpd during the January-February period. For the first quarter overall, crude imports reached 10.97 million bpd, down 1.5% from the same period last year.

In its monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global oil supply to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, which is 260,000 bpd lower than its previous estimate, citing lower output expectations from the United States. “The sharp decline in oil prices has shaken the U.S. shale sector, with companies indicating they require an average price of $65 per barrel to drill new light tight oil wells profitably,” the IEA said. In 2026, the IEA expects global supply to grow by 960,000 bpd. On the demand side, the IEA forecasts global oil demand to rise by 730,000 bpd in 2025, down from the 1.03 million bpd from last month.

Goldman Sachs projects oil demand will increase by 300,000 barrels per day between the end of 2024 and the end of 2025. The bank now predicts WTI to average $59 per barrel this year, Brent crude to average $63 per barrel. This is down from Goldman’s previous estimates of an average price of $66 for WTI and $69 for Brent in their 2025 price forecast. Goldman also reduced their global demand forecast for Q4 2026 by 900,000 bpd. 

The Keystone pipeline is still offline after a spill last Tuesday caused a shutdown. South Bow Corp. said they expect to resume operations by April 15th. On a daily basis the Keystone XL pipeline carries about 626,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

Last Friday’s  Baker Hughes Rig Count showed U.S. oil rigs decreased by 9 rigs, to a total of 480. U.S. gas rigs increased by 1, to a total of 97. Total rig counts declined for the third consecutive week. 

SPX: 5,275.70 (-2.24%)  DJIA: 39,669.39 (-1.73%) NDX: 16,307.16 (-3.07%) DXY: 99.38 (-0.84%)

FTSE100: (+0.32%) DAX: (+0.27%) CSI300: (+0.31%) HSI: (-1.91%) NIKKEI: (-1.01%)

Price Thoughts - Crude will look to break above the $63 handle in WTI and $66 handle for Brent in tomorrow’s session, the current ceiling in this range that’s held for a week. We had another week where API and EIA data conflicted, oil prices were supported off the EIA’s official data showing U.S. inventories expanded nearly 2 million barrels less than API’s figures. OPEC+’s compensation plan for members exceeding production quota was another bullish catalist thrown on futures markets. Add to that there’s more talk that Chinese and U.S. officials are starting the first stages of negotiations, in addition to Japan, South Korea and the EU who appear further along in the process. The US dollar index, after rebounding a half a dollar yesterday, as of this post, was flat but was lower for most of today’s trade. After Fed Chair Powell’s televised comments the broader U.S. stock market sold off into the close. Tomorrow is the last trading session for the U.S. markets this week.  

Technically short-term resistance is $63 and the $59 handle is supportive in the front months for WTI, while Brent has traded in a range of $67 and $61. As I always say, this market is currently heavily influenced by the headlines first and foremost, and the weekly U.S. EIA reports to a lesser degree. 

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You can reach me at - JRinaudo@walshtrading.com

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Jim Rinaudo

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Walsh Trading

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